Thursday, January 17, 2008

The KMT will not ease relations...and Taiwan's Indie Music Scene, from Seattle

Ted Galen Carpenter, whom I've critiqued here on more than one occasion, has an article in The National Interest arguing that the fundamental support for independence here in Taiwan will rein in the ability of the KMT to cozy up to the PRC government:

If they examine the KMT's position carefully, however, Chinese leaders are likely to be disillusioned. Although Ma does favor eventual reunification, there are three important caveats. First, reunification can take place only if mainland China becomes fully democratic. Ma—and most KMT members—have no interest in having Taiwan unify with China in its current, authoritarian incarnation. Second, reunification can occur only with the explicit consent of the Taiwanese people. In other words, Taiwan would have a veto. Finally, the KMT has reluctantly conceded that all options—even independence—must be available to Taiwanese voters when it comes time to make a decision. All of those caveats are anathema to Beijing.

The reality is that there is not a huge difference between Ma's positions and the policies that Chen's government has pursued. The KMT is simply more subtle and conciliatory in its language, and more cautious about actions that might provoke Beijing. In the short run, the latter is quite important. Whereas Chen and the DPP have repeatedly pushed the envelope on asserting Taiwan's sovereignty, and thereby threatened to disrupt the fragile status quo in the Taiwan Strait (much to Washington's dismay), a KMT government is committed to preserving the status quo. In the long run, though, reunification would not be much more likely under a KMT administration than a DPP one. And it remains to be seen how long Beijing will be content with a status quo that maintains Taiwan's existence as a de facto independent state.

Carpenter's analysis doesn't seem to take into account the numerous "short of formal unification" positions available to Ma and the KMT, that would annex Taiwan to the PRC without any obvious change in status. He also takes Ma at his word. Finally, since China defines the status quo in the Strait, he doesn't really get how it can manipulate Washington (and Taipei's image) to its own benefit -- the KMT will have to come round because it will sooner or later be accused of "risking the status quo." Nevertheless, not everyone in Washington is celebrating the KMT victory. Carpenter should be happy -- an AIT official was cited in the Taipei Times yesterday as saying that the era of large weapons purchases may well be over.

Carpenter's position on the recent election is actually quite nuanced -- much better than a lot of the conventional wisdom running around the media these days:
True, the rout of President Chen Shui-bian's Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was an emphatic repudiation of Chen's performance in office. But whether it was a repudiation of his assertive policies toward Beijing is less certain.

Actually, it was not a repudiation of Chen's performance in office, either, as I noted below. But at least Carpenter, who often doesn't get Taiwan, is clued into the fact that Chen's policies in many ways reflected local will.

Meanwhile, on the lighter side, the Seattle Times describes Taiwan's indie music scene....

The musical tastes of Taipei are not too different from Seattle. A recent visit to a record shop there revealed that six out of their Top 10 indie rock titles were from Seattle — and many of those albums were from Sub Pop. Listeners in Taipei must love Band of Horses and the Shins just as much as we do.

As for their tastes in pop, it mirrors ours, too — with sounds echoing the Britney of old, Jonas Brothers and Justin Timberlake. Have a listen to these hot Asian acts......


7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Speaking of the indie music scene, there'll be a great concert at the Danshui Farm on January 26. Here's the link:

http://www.tcmusic.com.tw/english/Default.aspx

Included in the lineup are singers Panai, Jia-Jia and Haoen, Paudull, and the Nawang Sisters. If you know these artists who record on the indie label, Taiwan Colors Music, you'll know this will be a great show.

corey said...

I noticed the same thing about Taiwan's indie scene, that when I saw concerts it often mirrored our own. I've come to really enjoy 黃立行 (now my favorite Taiwanese singer) and listen to stuff like the Silent Toads and KbN.

skiingkow said...

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Ma—and most KMT members—have no interest in having Taiwan unify with China in its current, authoritarian incarnation.

LOL!!

Are you freakin' kidding me?!

Authoritarianism fits the KMT party like an old leather shoe. And I challenge any blue supporter out there to tell me one thing the KMT has done to bolster democracy for Taiwan in the past 8 years.
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Anonymous said...

Ma's term in office will be at most 8 years. His opinions on the ultimate solution to the issue of independence or unification are completely irrelevant, because he'll likely be long retired (and likely long in the grave) before the issue is actually resolved, before a referendum for unification or independence is actually held.

Ma's contribution to the cause will be limited to his willingness to adopt policies, in the near term, which will end the politically-dictated isolationism which defines cross-strait affairs. Everything from trade to education to marriage will be liberalized.

And that's all Beijing is looking for. Beijing isn't tied to thinking of these issues on 4-year term time-frames; Beijing is playing a game of weiqi that extends out 50, 100 years.

Tommy said...

"Ma's term in office will be at most 8 years."

Um... because Taiwanese presidents are limited to two terms? That is obvious.

"Everything from trade to education to marriage will be liberalized. And that's all Beijing is looking for."

If that were all they were looking for, then there would be no current controversy. The lack of liberalisation up until this point has entirely been because China wants much more.

Anonymous said...

Stop Ma, "Authoritarianism fits the KMT party like an old leather shoe"

I adore you, Stop Ma. Now tell us why is KMT so authoritarianism. If you want to refer to CCK era, just give us what your forefathers did in their lifetime, as to allow us to make a good comparison.

Anonymous said...

KMT authoritarianism is alive and well in their decision making process. Because they have all the illegal party property, because they hold the purse strings, the Central Standing Committee and the old guard makes their decisions top down, implementing their decisions on the KMT Legislators and their party members. Every time the KMT hand picks someone for a position (happens all the time), they are going through an undemocratic, authoritarian process. Think about it, who the hell is doing the picking? It's not a lottery process...